Many look at the rising casualty figures in Iraq and assume that this means that the “insurgents” are winning. Of course, the casualty figures rose dramatically in the Mekong Delta during Tet, but all it meant was the the Viet Cong were on their last legs there, and lashing out in desperation. Similarly, there was a huge increase in American casualties during the Battle of the Bulge, but that didn’t mean that Germany was winning the war.

Smart stock pickers don’t rely on past, or even current performance, or buy into an up and overvalued market. Similarly, the terrorists in Iraq aren’t a good bet at this point. Amir Taheri explains why, in fact, they’re doomed.