James Lileks says what I meant to say here, but more at length and, as always, more eloquently.

…half the battle will occur in places we cannot reach or observe. A minimal-casualty defeat of the Islamists will require the help of Islam. I’d like to think that will happen on its own, without some exterior catastrophe to force the issue. For that matter I’d like to think I’ll win the Powerball. Every time the jackpot goes over 200 million, I buy a ticket. Every time I lose. I’m always disappointed, of course. But never surprised.

Let’s hope we can hit the jackpot.