Howard Dean won the Wisconsin straw poll. He got four times as many votes as Kerry, who came in second.

Now, it should be said that straw polls are where activist candidates shine, and Dean probably has the strongest grass-roots support of any of the candidates, including smart use of the web, so this doesn’t necessarily predict his performance in primaries. But still, this isn’t a good omen for them.

If they actually nominate Dean, they won’t have a chance in the general election, and if they nominate someone electable, they’ll anger the base. The Democrat Party is looking down the barrel of a major fissure (to mix a metaphor). The anti-war left is going to be very unhappy with any candidate that supported the war. I think that this could be as bad for them as 1968. Of course, if the economy has recovered by the spring (likely), the Dems may just write off the White House for 2004 and nominate a Dean to make a stand on what they perceive to be principle, and hope that this gets their base out for congressional races.