Don’t Betray Another Generation

Glenn already posted on this, but it’s worth repeating. It’s from a seventeen-year-old high-school student in the Detroit area.

We must achieve the almost impossible to go further then you. To go further then you we have to establish human life beyond the confines of our home. That is a mighty task you have left us with. Hopefully we can do that while finding the solutions to earthly problems in the process. We need a place to go, and we’ll find that place. Then we will go there, with our kids in the backseat (of the spacecraft) asking “Are we there yet?”

People like David are why we have to get it right this time. One generation’s dreams betrayed are enough.

[Via Kathy Kinsley]

Don’t Betray Another Generation

Glenn already posted on this, but it’s worth repeating. It’s from a seventeen-year-old high-school student in the Detroit area.

We must achieve the almost impossible to go further then you. To go further then you we have to establish human life beyond the confines of our home. That is a mighty task you have left us with. Hopefully we can do that while finding the solutions to earthly problems in the process. We need a place to go, and we’ll find that place. Then we will go there, with our kids in the backseat (of the spacecraft) asking “Are we there yet?”

People like David are why we have to get it right this time. One generation’s dreams betrayed are enough.

[Via Kathy Kinsley]

Their Minds Are Made Up

You know, watching events at the UN, you realize that, at some point, it just gets futile. There are some people that are never going to be interested in evidence, or logic, and cannot accept it, because if they do, their own agendas will be put at risk. It’s really a waste of time to try to convince them.

But enough reminiscing about the OJ Simpson and Clinton impeachment trials…

Space Entrepreneurs On Cavuto?

If you get Fox News, you might want to turn it on. Neil Cavuto just announced that he’s going to talk to couple of “honchos” of space companies that want to privatize it.

I’ll listen, report, and you can decide.

[Update, at 2 PM PST]

It was with Mike Gallo of Kelly Space and Technology, and Earl Renaud, from TGV Rockets.

The focus of the interview was whether or not people would be willing to fly on their vehicles after what happened Saturday. The answer, of course, was “of course.”

An Extraterrestrial Strike?

NASA is considering the possibility that Columbia was hit on orbit.

Could be. There’s a lot of junk floating around up there, though we’re doing better at keeping things clean, and most of the older stuff has deorbited. Of course, it could have been a natural object, a small meteoroid, in which case, it really was an act of God.

This all complicates life even more, because it’s no longer a matter of just watching launch films to see if there were any problems on ascent. It means that to really insure against this happening again, they have to have a way to do a tile inspection just prior to deorbit, and make it part of the deorbit procedure. Not a problem at station, but it’s more of a challenge for a mission like Columbia’s, which was on its own. And of course, they also would have to have a contingency plan if they can’t come back. More on that later.

On the other hand, one might simply be philosophical, and say that it’s not reasonable to design against every possible hazard. After all, my car could also be hit by a metorite, but that doesn’t mean that I armor my roof against such an eventuality.

I found this bit interesting.

After the report was issued, Fischbeck said NASA took steps to sharply reduce foam debris. The experts also urged NASA to find ways to improve tile safety, despite budget cuts.

“NASA must find ways of being cost-effective, because it simply cannot afford financially or politically to lose another orbiter,” the report cautioned.

Yes. NASA cannot afford to lose another orbiter. Note that it doesn’t say they can’t afford to lose another crew. Whether deliberately or inadvertently, they get it right. It’s the orbiter that has the value, not the astronauts, and reusable vehicles have to be reliable, or they’re unaffordable, regardless of their contents. That’s why talk of “man rating” a space transport, or that this will add cost to it, is utter nonsense.

[Update at 3:11 PM PST]

Jay Manifold has run the numbers on this.

[Another update at 3:38 PM PST]

Here’s a couple-year-old article about the subject, by Leonard David. I found this interesting, because I used to work on debris characterization over twenty years ago, at Aerospace, with Val Chobotov. It was my first job out of college. I worked with Bill Ailor, too, but he wasn’t doing debris analysis then.

Still Missing The Point

Over in the comments section of this post by Dan over at Happy Fun Pundit, Porphyrogenitus writes:

I do think that there will be a viable private space industry eventually. But the costs will have to go down first.

This is one of the many bits of conventional wisdom about space that is wrong, and continues to hold us back. It confuses cause and effect, and betrays a misunderstanding of why the cost of launch is high.

For many fundamental, institutional reasons, costs will never go down as long as the government is in charge. Low cost will only result from the entry of private enterprise.

This kind of thinking assumes that launch costs are high because we don’t have the right “technology.” This is a mistaken belief. They’re high because the market is too small, and there’s no competition. There’s only one solution for that, and it’s not development of another launch system by NASA.