Dick Riordan had a rough weekend at the California Republican convention. He lost the straw poll, was booed several times, has received numerous negative endorsements from many party luminaries, and was stalked by a guy in a rhinocerous costume, symbolizing his perception as a RINO (Republican In Name Only). George Deukmajian (former governor) has stated flat out that he will not support a Riordan candidacy.

Bill Simon, who won the straw poll, is coming on strong. He’s getting some key endorsements, and he’s got plenty of his own money. People have been predicting another potential Bloomberg-like win here, with the liberal Riordan running as a Republican of convenience, but I think it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll get the nomination. Party activists tend to be much more conservative than the even the registered Republican voters, especially in California.

And if he does, I fully expect to see a third-party movement spring up, led by Mr. Simon. It’s not clear to me whether he’d pull more votes from Riordan or Davis…